AUD/CAD
Commentary – We wrote last week that “the decline from .9519 is a large correction and is unfolding as a zigzag. Wave A is from .9519 to .9020 and wave B is from .9020 to .9290. Wave C would equal wave A at .8789. The 61.8% fibo of .8123-.9518 is at .8656 and is potential support. The 5/30 low at .8749, is very close to the measured objective of .8789. That may be the low but a rally through the wave A low at .9020 would confirm our suspicion.” The AUDCAD has rallied to .9015 today and price is also testing the 200 day SMA. A 5 wave rally from the bottom is evident on the intraday charts, so support is at the previous wave 4 low of .8912.

Strategy – Bullish now, against .8749, targeting above .9520 (potentially much higher levels)

AUD/JPY
Commentary – The AUDJPY remains bullish but may be in the final weeks of an impressive run. Channel resistance that dates to June 2001 comes in near 104.30 this week and weekly RSI is overbought (above 70). Counting from the bottom of the October 2000 low, we are nearing a significant top. Wave 3 is extended and wave 5 is tracing out a long ending diagonal (as it consists of overlapping waves). Price has thrust through the top of the diagonal line (red). Watch for signs of a reversal just above 104.00 in the coming weeks.

Strategy – None for now – watching for reversal

AUD/NZD
Commentary – There is no clear wave pattern in the AUDNZD can hasn’t been for some time. The pair continues to consolidate, primarily between 1.1050 and a declining resistance line drawn off of the November 2006 and May 2007 highs. A daily close through on of these levels would present a directional bias. We were bearish for the last few weeks, looking for a break of 1.1055. Price spiked below there on 6/8 and has come right back, so we are abandoning this position. The 55 and 100 day SMAs are right above current price and are flat, which illustrates the sideways nature of the market over recent months.

Strategy – None

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.