Euro Breaks Above 1.3400
Commentary: The bounce from 1.3261 has been stronger than expected and looks impulsive, thus we see bullish potential. Support is at today’s low of 1.3375 and potential resistance is 1.3441/90, which is the area bound by the 61.8% and 78.6% of 1.3552-1.3261. The longer term bearish bias is intact as long as price remains below 1.3552.

Strategy: None

Japanese Yen Small 4th Wave
Commentary: “It is our working assumption that the USDJPY is working higher in a C wave towards the 128.00 area over the next few months. The 78.6% of 135.13-101.67, the 100% extension of 108.98-122.17/115.14, and the 100% extension of 101.67-121.39/108.98 are between 127.97 and 128.70. In the short term, the USDJPY is tracing out a small 4th wave that should remain above 122.82.

Strategy: Align with uptrend at 122.90, against 121.81, targeting 128.00

British Pound Right at Resistance
Commentary: We wrote last week that “the decline from 1.9964 is a clean 5 wave affair and an a-b-c correction is unfolding from 1.9621. This correction should be complete near 1.9814/33. 1.9814 is where wave c would equal wave a and 1.9833 is the 61.8% of 1.9964-1.9621. Aggressive short term traders can look to trade the small c wave higher towards 1.9830 with 1.9655 as risk. We are looking to get bearish on either a break below 1.9621 or a rally to 1.9814.” We are bearish now, against 1.9964, targeting a break of 1.9621 and potentially much lower levels.

Strategy: Bearish now, against 1.9964, target TBD

Swiss Franc in C Leg of Correction
Commentary: We wrote last week that “the decline from 1.9964 is a clean 5 wave affair and an a-b-c correction is unfolding from 1.9621. This correction should be complete near 1.9814/33. 1.9814 is where wave c would equal wave a and 1.9833 is the 61.8% of 1.9964-1.9621. Aggressive short term traders can look to trade the small c wave higher towards 1.9830 with 1.9655 as risk. We are looking to get bearish on either a break below 1.9621 or a rally to 1.9814.” We are bearish now, against 1.9964, targeting a break of 1.9621 and potentially much lower levels.

Strategy: Bearish now, against 1.9964, target TBD

Canadian Dollar Working Towards 1.0850
Commentary: We still maintain that “the 4th wave correction of the 1.1825-1.0548 decline is underway. The projected end for wave 4 is 1.0849-1.1036. 1.0849 seems more likely since that level intersects with channel resistance this week.” Friday’s low at 1.0601 is the bottom of wave b within the larger wave 4. Price is above the 21 day SMA for the first time since March 20th.

Strategy: We are bullish now, against 1.0548, targeting 1.0800

Australian Dollar Bullish Above .8332
Commentary: Our assumption is that a correction ended at .8332, which is the 100% extension of .8476-.8365/.8447. We wrote last week that “once we see evidence of an impulse rally, we will get bullish against the swing low (which is .8332 now). A rally through .8447 warrants bullish action.” The rally fom last week’s low is is impulsive, and strongly indicates that at least one more 5 wave rally is expected with .8332 remaining intact. Support should be strong at the 61.8% of .8332-.8451 at .8377. We will look for a top following a rally through.8476.

Strategy: Bullish now, against .8332 target TBD

New Zealand Dollar Reverses at 61.8%
Commentary: From Friday: “The 5 wave decline from .7637 to .7465 suggests that at least one more leg lower will occur. An irregular flat correction may be unfolding from .7465. Potential reversal points are .7551 and .7571 (the 50% and 61.8% of .7637-.7465). We are bearish from .7535 and targeting .7262, which is the 161.8% extension of .7637-.7465/.7540. The 100% extension is at .7368 and may also be support so keep risk tight if price falls below .7400. In summary, we are looking for a spike above .7540 before price reverses and heads lower.” The high today was .7571 so our wave count is tracking nicely. The bearish targets are revised to .7399 and .7293 (which are the 100% and 161.8% extensions of .7637-.7540/.7571.

Strategy: Bearish at .7535, against .7637, targeting .7262.

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.