AUD/CAD
Commentary – The decline from .9519 is a large correction and is unfolding as a zigzag. Wave A is from .9519 to .9020 and wave B is from .9020 to .9290. Wave C appears to have ended at .8749 leaving waves A and C close to equal. The rally from .8749 to .9053 can be classified as impulsive, as there are 5 waves higher. The AUDCAD should decline in 3 waves now and the short term decline should end near .8865/85. This is the area bound by the 61.8% of .8749-.9053 / previous 4th wave low. This zone is a good level to initiate longs.

Strategy – Bullish now, against .8749, targeting above .9520 (potentially much higher levels)

AUD/NZD
Commentary – We wrote last week that “the AUDJPY remains bullish but may be in the final weeks of an impressive run. Channel resistance that dates to June 2001 comes in near 104.30 this week and weekly RSI is overbought (above 70). Counting from the bottom of the October 2000 low, we are nearing a significant top. Wave 3 is extended and wave 5 is tracing out a long ending diagonal (as it consists of overlapping waves). Price has thrust through the top of the diagonal line (red). Watch for signs of a reversal just above 104.00 in the coming weeks.” The AUDJPY is right at the mentioned channel resistance right now. If a reversal does not occur before 105.00, then resistance is not until 110.00, which is where the resistance line is on a semi-log chart. The chart above is a weekly chart.

Strategy – None for now – watching for reversal

AUD/JPY
Commentary – There is no clear wave pattern in the AUDNZD and hasn’t been for some time. The pair continues to consolidate, primarily between 1.1050 and a declining resistance line drawn off of the November 2006 and May 2007 highs. A daily close through on of these levels would present a directional bias. The moving averages are bearish, with the 21 day < 55 day < 100 day < 200 day.

Strategy – None

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.