Strong Snapback Rally in Stock Market
The markets staged a very strong snapback rally from an oversold condition that didn’t surprise us, but the steadiness of the move, particularly in the afternoon, and the strength near the close was very impressive.
The day started out with a gap lower as pre-market futures were sharply lower. The NDX rallied sharply after a quick opening drop, but the SPX trailed & indicated that perhaps we could still see some lower lows. But the SMH and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX), which were strong all session, kept pressing the NDX higher, and the S&P and Dow finally came along for the ride. There was a choppy, stair-step rally that took the indices up to the lunch hour, at which point they tested key short-term resistance at 1920 NDX and 1496 S&P on a couple occasions, backed off ,but retested support successfully. At that point they started another strong rally on a much stronger angle of ascent, plowing through resistance in the early afternoon and then rallying for the rest of the session, closing near the highs for the day going away.
The Dow was up 90 and about 170 points off the low. The S&P was up nearly 13 Ã,½, 22 points off the low. The Nasdaq 100 was up 24.42, which was 33 points off the low. The SOXX, which was up most of the day, closed up nearly 11 points, and about 12 points off the low. So you can see that even at the low it was only down a small fraction.
The technicals reversed sharply as well, positive by 23 Ã,½ to 9 Ã,½ on advance-declines on New York and by 20 Ã,½ to 9 Ã,½ on Nasdaq. Total volume was strong at nearly 1 Ã,¾ billion on New York and around 2.2 billion on Nasdaq. Up/down volume was positive by about 3 Ã,½ to 1 on New York and by 5 Ã,½ to 1 on Nasdaq.
So, a very strong day technically.
TheTechTrader.com board was mostly higher, but many of the stocks were changed by just small fractions.
The gainers were led today by JA Solar (JASO), which soared 2.85 on 2.6 million and set a new all-time high today. Portfolio position Spectrum Control (SPEC) came out with excellent earnings and revised their guidance upward, closing up 2.47 on 1.4 million shares, a gain of nearly 19 percent today.
Other gainers of note, Global Solutions (GSOL), one of our old favorites, was up 1.58 today. Force Protection (FRPT), also a former favorite, was up 1.66. Novatel (NVTL) was up another 1.01. VASCO Data Security (VDSI) soared ahead 1.74.
Sigma Designs (SIGM) gained 80 cents, Metabolix (MBLX) 40 cents, Chart of the Week LXU 57 cents, FuelTek (FTEK) 51 cents, Dendreon (DNDN) 66 cents on 13 1/2 million shares, and recent Chart of the Week China Medical Technologies (CMED) up 49 cents.
On the downside, Transcend Services (TRCR) fell 81 cents, ESEA down 30 cents, and DG FastChannel (DGIT) 34 cents, but the loss of the day by far was Hoku Scientific (HOKU), which gave back a big chunk of last week’s sharp gain, losing 1.36 on 7 Ã,½ million shares, closing just 20 cents off the low.
Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the 5-day declining channels were broken in the last hour today as the indices surged sharply higher, probably fueled by short covering. The declining 40-day moving average was taken out on the Nasdaq 100, and just barely so on the S&P 500. We’ll have to see if there’s any upside follow-through, but today indeed was a good day for the bulls.
Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.
|