EUR/JPY
Commentary – We wrote last week that “based on the outlooks for both the EURUSD and the USDJPY, it seems likely that any declines in the EURJPY will prove corrective and give way to fresh highs. Measured objectives for the end of the 5 wave rally from the 2000 low are between 171.75 and 175.02. The uptrend is intact as long as 161.49 is intact.” The pair dipped to 164.23 last week before resuming the longer term bull trend. The risk of a reversal is high as there are 5 waves up from the June 2005 low. An small 5 wave decline would signal that the trend has turned down.

Strategy – None

EUR/CHF
Commentary – The decline from 1.6671 is either the beginning of a much more bearish development or an a-b-c correction. Remaining below 1.6574 keeps the downtrend intact and focus on the 100% measured objective of 1.6671-1.6487/1.6574 at 1.6390. A decline through there targets the 161.8% at 1.6276.

Strategy – None

EUR/GBP
Commentary – The anticipated rally in the EURGBP is underway and price is headed much higher. The C leg of the A-B-C correction from the March high at .6867 unfolded as an ending diagonal. These patterns typically end with a violent reversal, which has occurred here. Price should remain above .6732 but .6707 is critical in order to keep the newly established bullish trend intact.

Strategy – Bullish now, against .6707, targeting above .7254

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.