Good day! I'm getting ready to head to New York for the Online Traders Expo, but I wanted to send out a bit of a wrap-up for the week before I head on out. First off, we have VRTS, which we've been following for the last couple of days. This has now dropped into the target of the 200-day sma, as well as equal move support coming out of the third wave of selling on the daily charts. As such, I'd have a pretty tight trailing on any remaining position.
Next, when it comes to the market as a whole, right now we have a great deal of divergence between the SP500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average on one end and the NASDAQ on the other. The prior two are much more bullish, looking to form triangles on the weekly charts with more upside potential. The NASDAQ, however, is looking to break lower following an Avalanche formation on the weekly charts.
Obviously, it is too early to tell yet which of the two patterns will continue to form and end up following through since both are just beginning, but one will lead the other which will fail. As such, I expect the higher risk we've seen over the past week with this divergence on the smaller time frames continue on the larger ones for several weeks. There will still be certain stocks and certain sectors worth trading, but be sure to put even more focus on relative strength and weakness in your selections. For instance, stocks like VRTS, which had even more relative weakness than the weaker NASDAQ as a whole had pretty nice follow through. It was a weaker stock in the weaker index. Stick to this and you should be just fine. Keep in mind on the more extreme stocks that if a move is too sharp, it can actually have less room to move than the index it is in because it will have already been overly exhausted.
I will be back late Tuesday, early Wednesday, so this column will resume in its regular format for Thursday morning. For those of you stopping by the expo, I speak on Monday evening at 5:00 ET and will be covering the topic to identifying and holding into trading targets. Take care and see you next week!
Toni Hansen is President and Co-founder of the Bastiat Group, Inc., and runs the popular Trading From Main Street. She can be reached at Toni@tradingfrommainstreet.com