CAD/JPY
Commentary – We wrote last week that “upside potential looks limited, especially considering the near term outlooks for both USDCAD and USDJPY. The correction in wave 4 is playing out now and the CADJPY is likely to register one more high (above 116.46) before additional bearish potential comes to the forefront. We’ll publish targets for the end of wave 5 as the advance begins to unfold.” The completion of 5 waves up from 97.50 gives scope to a sizeable decline. We’ll watch the form of the decline in order to determine targets.

Strategy – Bearish now, against 117.62, target TBD

CHF/JPY
Commentary – With potentially 5 waves up from 94.28, we are expecting at least a pullback towards the previous 4th wave at 97.69. On the smallest degree, the CHFJPY has traced out a 5 down, although it is not very clear (15 minute chart), thus our confidence in the downside is not great right now. There are far better opportunities, especially in CADJPY, NZDJPY and GBPJPY.

Strategy – Flat

NZD/JPY
Commentary – The advance from 77.41 looks close to complete (or already complete). The rally from 87.51 is the beginning of wave 5, which has traced out an ending diagonal, much like the NZDUSD has. These patterns are usually followed by sharp reversals. We are looking for a return to the previous 4th wave at 87.51. Coming under 95.23 would be the first sign that a top is in place.

Strategy – Bearish on break of 95.23, against 95.89, targeting 87.51

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.