AUD/CAD
Commentary – Reviewing our analysis for the AUDCAD, it looks like the rally from .8749 is wave X in a complex correction from .9519. We favor this view because the rally from .8749 is not a clean 5 wave impulse that signals the beginning of a 3rd wave. The favored view is that price will test the .8422-.8659 level, which is the 78.6%-61.8% of .8123-.9518 before the large wave 3 begins, which should be powerful.

Strategy – None

AUD/JPY
Commentary – We wrote last week that “the AUDJPY remains bullish but may be in the final weeks of an impressive run. Channel resistance that dates to June 2001 comes in near 104.30 this week and weekly RSI is overbought (above 70). Counting from the bottom of the October 2000 low, we are nearing a significant top. Wave 3 is extended and wave 5 is tracing out a long ending diagonal (as it consists of overlapping waves). Price has thrust through the top of the diagonal line (red). Watch for signs of a reversal just above 104.00 in the coming weeks.” The pair continues to press against channel resistance and weekly RSI remains overbought. Longs should keep risk tight at these levels. A drop below last week’s low (102.15) gives scope to additional bearish potential.

Strategy – None

AUD/NZD
Commentary – The AUDNZD is breaking down. The next level of resistance is the 78.6% of 1.0433-1.2493 at 1.0877. With little to work with regarding the wave structure the last few months, we have concentrated on the longer term charts. The monthly chart shows lower highs dating back to 1984 along with firm support at 1.0500. A move towards 1.0500 is most likely the next significant development.

Strategy – None

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.