Derek Frey provides weekly market commentary on currencies for the week of July 9.
Europe
Euro, Pound, Swiss Franc
This week the domestic economic schedule is relatively quite, though interest rate decisions from both The Bank of Canada and The Bank of Japan are key events for traders to watch. The technical setups of the Euro and the Pound place those markets very near key resistance zones and investors should be vigilant. Any data that comes out significantly different than the consensus expectation could push these pairs to new highs, a move which we have been anticipating for some time.
What does this all mean?
EUR/USD: This pair is consolidating in textbook fashion between 1.36 & 1.3650. A break through upper resistance could lead this pair towards 1.40, though it may take the next few months to get there.
GBP/USD: The Pound has been testing 2.02 resistance and based on the strong fundamentals I expect this pair to break that level and push to new highs along with the Euro.
USD/CHF: This pair has found support near 1.21, and a quick glance at a weekly chart leads to me believe this market is oversold. Traders should look to enter a long position within 30-40 pips of the recent lows, placing a sell stop below those levels to manage the risk.
Asia
Yen, Australian Dollar
USD/JPY: This week's BoJ meeting has the potential to really move this market. Based on the long term fundamental picture I expect this pair to roll over and retrace its recent strength. Short a move above 124 with a stops placed above an intraday high.
AUD/USD: The Aussie continues to climb to record highs and this has not been a surprise. A move above 86 presents a good opportunity to get long with a stop below 85.50.
North America
Canadian
USD/CAD: The Canadian dollar has pushed this pair to a new low ahead of this weeks BoC rate decision. If all goes as planned expect this pair to be trading closer to par in the coming weeks.
Derek Frey is Head Trader at Odom & Frey Futures & Options.
Risk Disclaimer
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options is not suitable for everyone. There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.