EUR/JPY
Commentary – We wrote last week that to “expect a rally to the 164.71-165.49 area before the next leg lower.” The EUR/JPY rallied to 165.39 before reversing and trading to 160.00. The correction unfolding now is a second wave that should end near 163.22/31. This is the 100% extension of 159.96-162.59/160.59 and the 61.8% of 165.39-159.96. Look for a top and reversal near there and for the next leg lower to challenge 156.90 and then 151.66 (these are Fibonacci extensions of 168.94-160.45/165.39).

Strategy – Look to get bearish near 163.30, against 165.39, targets 156.90 and 151.66

EUR/CHF
Commentary – The EUR/CHF is trading in an extremely choppy manner. One scenario that we can see possibly unfolding is price rallying towards the 61.8% of 1.6686-1.6347 in order to complete a flat correction. This would set the stage for a top and reversal near 1.6557. The bearish target would be below 1.6308.

Strategy – Flat

EUR/GBP
Commentary – The EUR/GBP has been stuck in a correction since mid-March and it looks like the correction will continue for at least a few more weeks as the rally from .6679 is in just 3 waves, which is corrective. The 3 wave pattern suggests that price will drop below .6679 before a bottom is formed and the EUR/GBP rallies significantly. Reversal points are at .6662 and .6606 (61.8% and 78.6% of .6535-.6867). Still, there is little doubt that the pair is headed much higher in coming months (as the rally is clearly impulsive and the decline corrective).

Strategy – Move to flat

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.