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Rally Fizzles in the Stock Market
By Harry Boxer | Published  01/7/2005 | Stocks | Unrated
Rally Fizzles in the Stock Market

The markets gave it a valiant try to rally strongly today, but they just couldn't hold it, and in the afternoon they drifted lower for the rest of the session.

The indices opened firm, backed and filled but couldn't get anywhere and then sold off to new lows. Then they had a strong rally that took them up through the morning highs, and at that point the Nasdaq 100 broke through its short-term resistance at 1570, and almost got up to secondary resistance at 1580, stalling out just beneath 1578. But the S&P could not take out the 1192.5-1193 zone, which has been formidable resistance over the last several days. When that non-confirmation occurred the indices came down in a 5-wave pattern, closing near the lows for the afternoon in a fairly disappointing close, to say the least.

It was a mixed close with the Dow down 19 and the S&P 500 down 1.70, but the Nasdaq 100 managed to get up 7 1/4, led by the SOX Index, up 5 1/2. But the Composite was down 1.39.

Technicals were 3 to 2 negative on both exchanges on advance-declines. Up/down volume was 9 to 5 negative on New York on total volume of about 1.45 billion. On Nasdaq up-volume just edged down-volume by a little less than 10 to 9 on more than 1.9 billion shares traded, a pretty solid volume day.

TheTechTrader.com board had a few outstanding issues. Broadcom (BRCM) led the SOX and SMH higher today, up nearly 2 points on heavy volume. Parlux Fragrances (PARL), one of our recent Charts of the Week, was up 1.64 on the acquisition of new fragrance line. Smith Micro (SMSI), with outstanding relative strength the last two days, up 82 cents, and ZI Communications (ZICA) was up 47 cents, along with Alvarion (ALVR), up 32 cents.

On the downside, WorldGate (WGAT) got hammered for 91 cents, Mikron (MIKR) continued to give back its gains from last week's run-up, CrypoLogic (CRYP) was down 58 cents, and Dynamic Materials (BOOM) down 62 cents.

Stepping back and reviewing the overall patterns, despite the oversold condition and the market being down all week, the market showed very little ability to hold any rallies. The S&P today tested but failed to break out of three-day overhead resistance in the 1193 range, but held near the 1183 support.

It's going to be key next week to see if the market can hold this level and rally and snap back to test higher levels of resistance or whether this is purely a consolidation before the next leg down.

Good trading!

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a FREE 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a Free 30-Day Trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.