Bear Market Reinvents the Question Mark |
By Bill Bonner |
Published
08/15/2007
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Stocks , Options , Futures , Currency
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Unrated
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Bear Market Reinvents the Question Mark
Today is a holiday in France; it marks the day when the Virgin rose into heaven. As to its veracity, we cannot comment; we weren’t there. But more than 100 million people are getting the day off from work because of it.
Not here at The Daily Reckoning headquarters, of course. We honor no holidays except our own. And today, we have reckoning to do.
Yesterday, the Dow dropped 207 points. Investors are beginning to get nervous. What if the stock market continues to go down? What if it stays down for years? What if more hedge funds go broke? What if the housing market stays like this for years...or worse; what if house prices go down 20% or more? What’s Ben Bernanke going to do about this?
The question mark was invented in a bear market, we conclude. When people are feeling fat and sassy, they have no need for it. It is the old fellow, under pressure, who finds it useful.
“Why should I pay such a high commission?” he asks his broker.
“What if prices don’t come back up?” he asks no one in particular.
“What does this new beau of yours do?” he asks his daughter.
Clients in Goldman’s (NYSE:GS ) global equity fund must be asking themselves what is going on, after hearing that the fund lost 30% of its value in the last week. It must be what shareholders of the building stocks are wondering too...and what a lot of homeowners want to know.
A few weeks ago, they had scarcely ever met a question mark. Now they’re finding it essential...taking it wherever they go...and keeping it next to the bedside in case they need it in the middle of the night.
Goldman dropped the fees on its fund to 10% of profits. Still, an investor might want to ask the questions: What if there aren’t any profits? What if there are more losses?
Investors in the giant private equity firm Blackstone (NYSE:BX ) are probably asking themselves when the stock, now trading at $26, will get back to where it was when they bought it - $31. And the fellows who run rival takeover firm, KKR (AMS:KPE ), are probably asking themselves if they want to bother to go public at all. They already had to amend their offer documents, letting investors know that since the low-hanging fruit had been picked, they would have to skinny up a few trees to get the money they were looking for...and that might mean lower operating margins.
Meanwhile, the dollar has gone up! People are asking themselves about that too. But that’s what happens in a credit crunch. Investors, speculators and householders need dollars to pay their bills. Dollars are what people owe. So dollars is what they must have. When dollars are not so readily forthcoming, they go up in price.
Many analysts believe, too, that the dollar is still a ‘safe haven’ for wealth. After posing nervous interrogatories, an investor is likely to take his money out of risky speculations and move it to dollars. Looking around at the great universe of paper currencies, we see that the Chinese are increasing their money supply (CNY ) at an astounding 20% annual rate (according to Goldman). The Indians are adding rupees (INR ) at a 24% rate. And the Russkies, (what are they thinking...?) are adding to the world’s supply of rubles (RUB ) at a 51% rate! Alongside those numbers, the dollar does look safe. But why the euro - easily as safe as the dollar - should fall against the greenback is another thing that calls for a question mark. The euro has lost 1.5% of its value, compared to dollars, over the last two weeks. Why?
Our guess is still that the dollar is doomed...maybe not in the short-run credit crunch. Definitely in the long run. But when will the long run arrive?
What’s happening? Where will it all lead? We don’t know dear reader. We’ll just sit tight with our gold and wait and see.
So many questions, dear reader...and on a holiday no less!
Bill Bonner is the President of Agora Publishing. For more on Bill Bonner, visit The Daily Reckoning.
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