We're on vacation. Really. Officially. And actually - until the end of the month. We always take off from the Feast of the Assumption until the beginning of the ninth month.

But there are things to be reckoned with, and we're not going to abandon our dear readers. Besides, we can't stay away.

Today, we note only that the Dow took another dip downwards. The index opened this morning at 12,861 - a 5-month low. Market technicians tell us that the action looks bad - like bear market action. And our old friend Harry Schultz says that fear has now replaced greed as the underlying emotion in the marketplace.

We're not so sure. But we've had our Crash Alert flag flying for months…and we'll keep it up until this market resolves itself. Despite the anxiety expressed thus far, the Dow is still up for the year. Which means it has a long, long way to fall. Some day, stocks will be a bargain again. But the Dow would have to be cut in half, roughly, before that day arrives. Between that day and this, we'd rather watch the game than play it.

Meanwhile, the dollar is going up against the euro (EUR) and down against yen (JPY). Why? A hypothesis: Because speculators are growing fearful…and because they need dollars to pay their debts and their bills.

People have fewer euro-denominated debts than dollar-denominated debts, so the dollar rises against the euro. On the other hand, speculators in the carry trade have huge yen debts. They borrowed at low yen rates in order to buy higher-yielding investments - including subprime CDOs. Now, they've got to sell their dollar positions and buy yen in order to repay their yen loans. So the yen rises against the dollar.

On another note, we got a panicked call from our lawyer yesterday. This was the gist of his comments:

"You must be crazy to tell the whole world that you're not really going to move to Florida. If your move is just a sham it won't work. And you could have to pay fines and penalties. You have to actually move your permanent home to Florida in order to file your taxes as a Florida resident."

"But wait a minute," we replied. "We've been paying taxes to the state of Maryland for 10 years without being a real resident of the state. We can darned well pay taxes to Florida without being a real resident."

"No you can't. You pay where you are deemed…by law…to be a resident. You're deemed a Maryland resident because your attachments to the state, as thin as they are, are stronger than to any other state. It's your permanent home in the United States, even though you don't really live here. If you want to file taxes as a Florida resident, you have to change that…so that Florida is the state where you are considered most closely connected. It just happens that you don't have many connections, so it should be fairly easy to do. But please don't tell the whole world that you're just pretending to be a Florida resident or we'll end up in court for sure."

Well, okay…

Later in the day…

"Kids, we really are moving to Florida. This time I really mean it. Our lawyer says we have to. We're moving to Florida in the full, legal sense in which people who don't really live in the Sunshine State, but in fact make their residence in a foreign country, move there. So pack your bags. Buy some suntan lotion. We're going to Flawda!"

Over and out…for the first day of our vacation…

Bill Bonner is the President of Agora Publishing. For more on Bill Bonner, visit The Daily Reckoning.