EUR/JPY
Commentary – We wrote last week to expect “the next leg lower to challenge 156.90 and then 151.66 (these are Fibonacci extensions of 168.94-160.45/165.39).” The EUR/JPY did not find a bottom until 149.25. The bounce from there has stalled at the 38.2% of 165.39-149.25 and the rally is in 3 waves, so a correction may be complete at 155.94. A bearish bias is warranted against there. Coming under 149.25 may complete 5 waves down from the top (168.94). A larger correction would then be expected.

Strategy – Bearish against 155.94, target 149.25

EUR/CHF
Commentary – The EUR/CHF is sitting right at the support line drawn off of the May 2006 and March 2007 lows. A daily close below the line would strengthen the bearish case. From an EW standpoint, the pair will likel chop lower in a series of 4th and 5th waves towards the 161.8% extension of 1.6686-1.6347/1.6534 at 1.5984 before a corrective pattern takes hold.

Strategy – Flat

EUR/GBP
Commentary – The EUR/GBP has been stuck in a correction since mid-March and it looks like the correction will continue for at least a few more weeks as the rally from .6679 is not impulsive. The 3 wave pattern gives scope to a drop below .6679 before a long standing bottom forms. Reversal points are at .6662 and .6606 (61.8% and 78.6% of .6535-.6867). Still, there is little doubt that the pair is headed much higher in coming months (as the rally is clearly impulsive and the decline corrective).

Strategy – Flat

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.