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Consolidating the Stock Market Rally
By Harry Boxer | Published  08/20/2007 | Stocks | Unrated
Consolidating the Stock Market Rally

We got pretty much what I expected for most of the day, which was a consolidation of last week’s rally. The indices opened mixed, dropped a little bit, and then went to the morning highs rather quickly before fading right near the Friday highs. They were unable to punch through at that point, and then went into a 5-wave decline that lasted through mid-session, when they had a test of support that held. Then in the late afternoon they had a nice rally back that took the NDX from 1875 to 1899. The S&P 500 went from 1430 t0 more than 1450, and then the indices pulled back from nominal new highs when they were unable to push through late in the session.

Net on the day it was a mixed session, with the Dow up 42, the S&P 500 down 0.4, and the Nasdaq 100 up 4 1/4. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOXX) was up 4.33. The S&P 100 was also down 41 cents.

The technicals were mixed but slightly positive. NYSE advance-declines were 3 to 2 positive, but Nasdaq was ahead by only 86 issues. Up/down volume was 8 to 7 positive on New York and 5 to 3 positive on Nasdaq. Total volume was much lighter today with only 1.5 billion traded on New York and only 1 2/3 billion on Nasdaq. So, a somewhat suspect rally on lighter volume.

TheTechTrader.com board was mostly narrowly mixed, but there were some outstanding stocks on the plus side. The shipping sector was strong today, with DryShips (DRYS) ahead by 2.36 and Excel Maritime (EXM) up 1.52. FuelTek (FTEK) also had a strong advance today, up 1.50. Aluminum Corp. of China (ACH) had a nice run today, up 1.87.

Charts of the Week Cepheid (CPHD) was up 98 cents and Nuance Communications (NUAN) up 75 cents today. Ceragon Networks (CRNT) gained 64 cents, Chindex (CHDX) 75 cents, and VMWare (VMW) gained 1.78 today.

On the downside, there were no point-plus losers. Energy Conversion Devices (ENER) gave back 48 cents, IGTE 70 cents, Research Frontiers (REFR) 36 cents, and Taser (TASR) 52 cents.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, early on there was a consolidation of the recent run-up. They came on strong in the afternoon, but failed to break-through and backed off late in the session. We'll see if there's any follow-through tomorrow, or retesting, but it feels like they need to do some more backing and filling or deeper retesting before they can work their way higher.

There's some strong overhead resistance right near here, particularly on the Nasdaq 100, at around 1900.

Harry Boxer is a technical consultant to many Wall Street hedge funds and large institutional traders, and author of TheTechTrader.com, a real-time diary of his day, swing and intermediate-term trades. For more of Harry Boxer, sign up for a free 15-day trial to his Real-Time Technical Trading Diary, or sign up for a free 30-day trial to his Top Charts of the Week service.