AUD/CAD
Commentary – Please see last week’s chart and analysis for the longer term picture and to understand why we are longer term bullish against .8119. We are taking a look at an hourly chart for the first time in a long while (for AUD/CAD) because this may be the big turn and beginning of a larger 3rd wave higher. The rally from .8271-.8751 can be counted as 5 waves up and a 3 wave correction has followed, indicating that the larger degree trend is bullish. The only question is whether or not the drop from .8752-.8588 is a complete correction or just the first leg of a more complex correction. Either way, the outlook is bullish as long as price is above .8271.

Strategy – Longer term bullish against .8119, target much higher (above .9514)

AUD/JPY
Commentary – After viewing the other Yen crosses, we see it more likely that the decline from the top (107.70) is large wave A in a large complex corrective pattern. This means that everything that has occurred since the low (85.98) is large wave B. Wave a of B is from 85.98-97.01 and wave b of B is unfolding now and should end near the 61.8% of 85.98-97.01 at 90.19. Wave c of B would follow and potentially bring price close to the 61.8% of 107.70-85.98 at 99.41. We will have a better handle on where this large wave B correction may end as price action unfolds.

Strategy – Flat

AUD/NZD
Commentary – We maintain that “price will continue higher and register a new high in a 5th wave (above 1.1762). This would make 5 waves up from 1.0906 and give way to a larger correction. The correction will offer an opportunity to get aggressively bullish for wave 3 higher.

Strategy – Flat

Jamie Saettele is a Technical Currency Analyst for FXCM.