Energies
Crude oil tested $80 this week as inventory and weather concerns forced short covering and near-hysteria buying. Technically the market remains bullish, but fundamentally and seasonally it appears ready for a turn as crude builds a top near $80. Bear spreads in crude and rbob gasoline are recommended here. Natural gas, on the other hand, is seeing a setup for a turn in its oversupply situation and could run significantly higher as the market volatility is forcing shorts out in a hurry - and there are plenty more that will need to cover.

Financials
A resilient stock market is back up towards the higher end of its wide consolidation pattern. Shorts should be developed as the market's ability to test contract highs (only 80 points away on the S&P) is unlikely given the current concerns in the market. The Fed meeting on Tuesday is by far the most critical meeting in years as the expectation for a cut is built into the market and the potential for a surprise is undeniable. The Fed is forced to make a move here to avoid utter market confusion, but it is safer for them to cut 25 basis points than to rattle the market by cutting any more than that. A 50- to 100-basis point cut would likely bring about mass panic in a market that wants to see some relief in the housing sector but also wants reassurance from the Fed that the situation is not completely out of control.

Bonds have been selling off from the highs set earlier this week as the reality of a massive cut is becoming less and less likely. The dollar weakness is difficult to argue against fundamentally, and the market may see several hundred points down before bottoming. The gut says to buy up calls in the dollar (puts in the euro) despite the technical outlook. The Canadian dollar has broken out to the upside once again and is so good at faking the trend shift that I feel compelled to continue to play puts at these levels. If we break above $1 then the U.S. government seriously needs to take some currency controls.

Grains
An intriguing crop report gave the market the excuse to finally reverse the wheat/corn spread a bit and was also very bullish for beans. China appears to be set to have a major grain shortage this year which only furthers the idea that the rally has just begun in this sector. Beans and corn remain value plays but I have to say it seems inevitable that wheat will test the $9.07 highs and possibly run to $10 before it is all said and done. The facts remain that Russia, 5th largest exporter in the world, is banning exports, and the U.S. and Canadian crops are devastated. Throw in a global panic and demand is skyrocketing. However, corn is a substitutive commodity for wheat and the continued rise in wheat prices will ultimately bring the rest of the grains into the forefront. Rice remains a strong bull play with calls.

Meats
Cattle has tested the neckline in a critical head and shoulders pattern, and if it breaks Friday's low we could see some serious downside here. Hogs remain in a consolidation pattern and premium should be collected here.

Metals
Gold's recent technical breakout compounded a general commodities rally and sent metals to fresh near-term highs. The gut says the gold and silver moves have a good chance of being fake outs and the best approach here is long strangles to play the next volatile move following Tuesday's Fed meeting. Platinum continues to be a strong sell as foreign car manufacturers are finding ways to avoid the use of this expensive metal in fuel cell production. Copper also appears ready for a fall as the $4 market is getting harder and harder for the market to retest.

Softs
Coffee remains a strong buy despite a recent ICO supply forecast suggesting a slightly higher crop than last month's projections. Nevertheless, demand is strong and the technical outlook for the market is very bullish. Cocoa is finding technical and fundamental strength as it gathers bullish momentum during a critical time of year. Sugar is developing a significant base of support and is likely to see a strong spike as the fundamental bad news is already out. The ISO seems committed to driving prices down but has likely spent itself with negative PR in recent months. This is a good call buying opportunity here. Cotton is strong as disease and weather have hurt this once oversupplied market. Recent technicals also suggest this market is setting up to test the recent highs. OJ got a technical lift as storm concerns coupled with some worries over California supplies have brought buyers into the market. On a retracement basis, this market could easily see 140 before testing any real resistance. Lumber is a buy.

James Mound is the head analyst for www.MoundReport.com, and author of the commodity book 7 Secrets. For a free email subscription to James Mound's Weekend Commodities Review and Trade of the Month, click here.