The big picture of the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF (DUG) continues to act and look like the establishment of a significant base-like formation that is on the verge of propelling the price structure considerably higher.
Mike Paulenoff expects downside pressure to continue until a considerably oversold condition is established, and looks for the SPX to press below 1430/25 to test the powerful 2003-2007 trendline.
The potentially massive top pattern that has formed on the S&P 500 Depository Receipts (SPY) is in stark contrast to the still viable uptrend pattern evidenced by the Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ).
Mike Paulenoff takes a look at the Goldman Sachs (GS) chart which provides insights into the plight of the financial sector and its Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF).
The strong upmove in the Lehman 20 Year T-note ETF (TLT) suggests to Mike Paulenoff that the bond market thinks that the economy is inherently weaker, and/or more vulnerable to the housing and credit crunch than most people think.
Mike Paulenoff's work is warning him that the energy complex in general, and the Energy Select SPDR (XLE) in particular, is in the early phase of a developing intermediate-term top formation.
The relationships between the various legs during the most recent 10-month upmove point to an additional 4%-10% climb in crude oil prices prior to the anticipated peak and reversal.
The structure of the correction, its magnitude, and the upside pivot strongly suggest to Mike Paulenoff that the UltraShort S&P ETF (SDS) has started a new upleg.
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