Articles by this Author
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Upside Inflation Risks Take Center Stage
The Fed is very likely to leave rates unchanged at 2%, as more accommodative policy is no longer needed, and may actually be damaging as upside inflation risks build.
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Inflation Expectations Rise As Oil, Food Prices Prove To Be More Convincing Than Bernanke
Recent commentary by various Federal Reserve members has only supported the case that the FOMC has no intention of cutting rates further in the near-term despite significant downside risks to growth.
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Has Fed Bailout Come To An End?
Various Federal Reserve officials continue to issue commentary suggesting that they will leave rates steady at their next meeting in June.
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Is The Fed Preparing The Markets For A Pause In June?
Commentary by Federal Reserve officials has been focused on strong price pressures in the US economy. While FOMC Chairman Bernanke did note that the financial markets have yet to truly normalize, his recent speech on the Fed’s liquidity provisions suggests that this will continue to be the method of dealing with the credit crunch, rather than outright cuts to the target Fed Funds rate.
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Will Trichet Back Off From His Hawkish Bias This Week?
The European Central Bank is widely expected to leave rates steady this week at 4.00%. Will Trichet remain hawkish or focus more on mounting downside risks to growth?
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Why the Fed Will Not Cut More Than 25 Basis Points Next Week
If the credit markets remain tight and economic growth in the US has slowed dramatically, why wouldn’t the Federal Reserve continue slashing rates at their next meeting on April 30? One word: inflation.
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Building Inflation Will Likely Ensure a Mild 25bp Cut on April 30
Recent commentary from various FOMC members suggests that the instability in the markets remains of major concern, but given the two dissenting votes we saw during the March meeting by members Fisher and Plosser in favor of “"ess aggressive" policy, it is clear that many are worried about mounting inflation pressures.
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Growth, Credit Markets Still a Problem
Given the Federal Reserve’s cumulative 300bps worth of rate cuts since last September, it is obvious that the FOMC is extremely concerned with the mounting downside risks to growth and the persistent credit crunch that helped to nearly drive Bear Stearns into bankruptcy.
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Non-Farm Payrolls: Dollar Outlook Hinges Upon the Degree of Job Losses
Now more than ever, the change in non-farm payrolls for the month of March will determine the outlook for the US dollar and US monetary policy.
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Bernanke Testimony Sinks The Dollar Before NFP Lull
The tentative dollar rebound from Tuesday was stalled today by an ominous forecast for the economy from Fed Chairman Bernanke during his testimony before Congress.
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