Following the FOMC’s 25 basis point cut on December 11, the committee's policy statement made a point of keeping all options open when it comes to the next meeting in January.
Strong inflation pressures have thus far left the European Central Bank maintaining a hawkish bias. However, downside risks to growth, instability in the financial markets, and the rapid appreciation of the euro has also left the bank quite unsure of what to do next.
Many Federal Open Market Committee members have made a point of signaling some hesitance to cut rates again in the near-term, as a weaker US dollar and record high oil prices significantly raise inflation risks in the economy.
The FOMC’s most recent decision to cut rates by 25bp to 4.50 percent was widely expected by the markets, but the accompanying policy statement suggested that rates will be left steady in December as the downside risks to growth are counterbalanced by upside inflation risks. Do Fed Funds futures agree?
Comments by FOMC members ahead of the highly-anticipated October 31 rate decision shows some emerging divisions, as dovish references to softer core inflation have been countered by more neutral notations of healthy output and employment levels.
Currency trading markets are likely to see extensive volatility in the week ahead, as forex speculators are largely unsure of what to expect from the weekend’s G7 summit in Washington, DC.
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