Asian markets dropped on the news of the Fed's adjustment to the discount rate, but North American traders may want to prove their more independent spirit on the pretext that the market had already "discounted" the Fed’s move and that it is no big deal.
The chart for SPY is indicative of a lack of conviction on the part of equity investors in the recent rebound from the selling that began in mid-January.
The chart pattern for TAN, a sector fund which tracks solar energy stocks, looks constructive on the long side with evidence that the recent sell-off is attracting buyers.
Some of the more interesting revelations of the last few days have arisen in connection with the arcane financings arranged by Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan for the Greek government.
Assets in the US Treasury complex may still be the preferred safe harbor of choice, but if all debt instruments are becoming subject to a higher risk premium, along with the Fed’s intention to begin removing liquidity, even those fleeing to quality may need a higher return to keep funds in these instruments over the longer term.
The earnings report of Coca Cola (KO) echoes that of McDonalds and shows that US sales growth is weak and that most growth is coming from Asia. These reports, from such ubiquitous multi-national companies, provide probably greater insight into the state of the real global economy than many of the statistics released by the various government agencies around the world.
When companies such as 3M (MMM) have fallen below key support levels and volume patterns are indicative of distribution, it is advisable to be cautious about the blue chip sector.
The risk for US equities at this point is that the severe correction that has taken place since the second half of January will now lead to a pattern that is likely to be a bearish pullback or flag formation on subdued volume.
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