The chart for the banking index (^BKX) reveals a severe price congestion pattern as the closes move even more tightly into the apex of a triangular formation.
The chart for the Nasdaq 100 index (^NDX) illustrates better than most the recent price congestion, which has been a characteristic for most of the broad equity indices. The triangular formation is usually a precursor to a decisive range expansion and directional session which we expect to see emerge in the course of this week.
With the customary end of quarter portfolio cosmetics now out of the way, there may be a renewed testing of the resolve of the bulls in coming sessions.
The conflicting imperatives of remaining vigilant on inflation and accommodative to further fall out from problems in the housing sector has been one of the problems that many traders in the market prefer not to confront.
The data that pointed to further weakness in the housing market and a drop in consumer confidence are raising concerns that a potential slowdown in the consumer sector may be more acute than some of the optimists have been currently discounting.
Since the recovery began from the selling climax on March 5, the short sellers have been constantly ambushed each time they have tried to seize some bad news in an attempt to take the indices down.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note has been moving up steadily since the middle of last week after the FOMC announcement. A possible implication is that bond traders are a little more concerned about inflation than the Fed governors appear to have been in their last statement.
If the sub-prime woes have been fully discounted by the market, the 240 level on the broker/dealer index (^XBD) needs to be successfully overcome in the near future. If the investment banks were to falter again, this would have negative consequences for the overall market.
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