Upcoming fourth quarter GDP and personal consumption final readings aren’t expected to deviate from their preliminary numbers. However, the recent trend for U.S. fundamental data has been to severely disappoint, with consumer confidence, home prices and durable goods orders underwhelming.
The feel good sentiment currently permeating the markets may get another boost as U.S. durable goods orders are expected to rebound 0.8% in February from -5.3% the month prior.
Event risk for the currency market lies primarily on the US dollar side, as consumer confidence, durable goods orders, and GDP revisions are all scheduled to be released.
Business sentiment in Japan is likely to falter in Q1 as a stronger yen hurts exporters and a global credit crunch increases borrowing costs and damages prospects for growth worldwide.
Retail spending in the UK is anticipated to slow during the month of February and fall 0.2 percent from January to help drag the annual rate of growth down to 3.6 percent.
The biggest event risk for the UK markets this week comes from the release of the minutes from the Bank of England’s March meeting, as they are likely to echo much of the same wary sentiment reflected in the monetary policy statement that was released in February.
Federal Reserve interest rate announcements have traditionally been big market movers for the US dollar, but with a major liquidity crunch taking a heavy toll on the financial sector as a whole, equity traders may be watching the news most closely of all.
Upcoming US economic data is expected to be relatively optimistic on Monday, though they will fall short of suggesting that conditions in the US are truly improving.
US economic data is expected to show that Advance Retail Sales slowed during February to a 0.2 percent pace, as consumer confidence rapidly deteriorates and energy prices skyrocket.
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